Five Predictions for the Tractor Market in 2025

At this point in time, it is not too late to predict the tractor market in 2025. However, regardless of whether this prediction is made or not, almost all tractor factories are either holding annual meetings or already conducting spring promotions in 2025. The so-called 'practical work promotes the country and enterprises' can be fully reflected in domestic agricultural machinery.

A comprehensive and systematic prediction of the changes and development trends in the domestic tractor industry in 2025 still has important reference value for enterprise planning and decision-making.

1、Will the market improve or deteriorate?

According to the data, the number of tractor companies that achieved sales through the subsidy system increased to 221 in 2024, an increase of more than ten compared to 2023, including strong enterprises such as Shandong Lingong, Zhongnong Boding, and Yancheng Jingangxing. The addition of these new enterprises may indicate new investment opportunities in the tractor industry.

Whether the tractor market will be good or bad in 2025 is believed to be the most concerned issue for many tractor factories and dealers. The author asked many bosses about this question and also learned about the annual meetings of some tractor companies. From the information collected from various aspects, it can be seen that everyone is generally optimistic about 2025. Of course, the premise is that compared with 2024, half of the bosses believe that 2025 will be the same as 2024, and one-third believe that there will be slight growth, but no one thinks that there will be big ups and downs, especially significant growth.

My personal opinion is that there will not be a major market trend in the domestic tractor industry in 2025, but there will also be no significant decline. As of January 3rd, there have been no significant negative news reports, while there are relatively more positive news.

However, the tractor industry is currently in a stock market and post subsidy era. Even with policy support from the government to promote internal circulation and stimulate consumption, market demand is still not strong enough. Therefore, the author predicts that tractor sales will increase by about 5% in 2025. Of course, there will be significant growth in segmented power segments, but it will not affect the overall market situation.

2、What new changes will there be in the subsidy policy?

The author believes that the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy is already a clear card, and there will not be major changes in 2025. There are several aspects that are relatively clear:

One is that the policy tone for tractors has shifted from suppression and correction in the previous two years to encouragement and support, which is relatively more friendly.

The second is the clear direction of "supporting the strong and supporting the strong" and "optimizing machines and subsidies", which involve enterprise level, technology and product level respectively. Of course, the beneficiaries are powerful large enterprises and new products with advanced technology.

The third issue is that traditional mechanical shift models will lower their subsidy rates, while power shift and intelligent control tractors will increase their subsidy efforts. This has been clearly stated in the "Subsidy Fund List" of the new three-year subsidy policy. Recently, nearly ten provinces have released new subsidy policies for 2025, which shows that local subsidies will only be greater than national subsidies, and there will be no shortage of subsidies.

But there are several aspects that are still unclear and need further clarification:

Can the subsidy of 250000 yuan for power shift and continuously variable transmission tractors be implemented? The Implementation Opinions on Subsidies for Agricultural Machinery Purchase and Application in 2024-2026 stipulate that the subsidy for tractors with 100 horsepower or more shall not exceed 100000 yuan, and the subsidy for tractors with 200 horsepower or more power shift or continuously variable transmission shall be limited to 250000 yuan. However, the list of subsidy funds for August shows that the maximum subsidy for smart tractors is only 74700 yuan, far below the upper limit of 250000 yuan, which has sparked widespread speculation in the industry and hopes that the policy will be clearly implemented by 2025.

Secondly, can EVT tractors be considered as continuously variable transmission tractors and enjoy the same subsidy treatment as continuously variable transmission tractors?

Thirdly, will some provinces or regions pilot pure electric tractors? The electrification of the automotive and construction machinery industries is booming, while the electrification of the agricultural machinery industry is clearly lagging behind. Many people want to seize the opportunity of electrification, so they inevitably express deep concern about the attitude of subsidy policies towards electrification.

3、What adjustments will be made to the product structure?

The changes in domestic tractor products in 2025 will be very complex, and it is difficult to explain in a few words.

From a technical perspective, it is evident that power shifting will be a hot topic in 2025, followed by continuously variable transmission. However, models with meshing sleeve and shuttle synchronizer shifting will enter a low point. Among power shifting products, entry-level power reversing will become the real big winner in 2025, with an expected increase of over 50000 units throughout the year.

From the perspective of power range analysis, the proportion of sales of 100 horsepower and above will continue to increase in 2025, especially for heavy-duty tractors with 200 horsepower and above, which will experience significant growth and increase in proportion. Among them, power reversing models will be the main force of growth, and full power shifting and CVT models will also have substantial growth. Some leading enterprises will form true mass sales.

According to the latest data, the sales volume of tracked tractors in China will exceed 3000 units in 2024, with sales reaching 500 million yuan, demonstrating strong demand for tracked tractors in the market. With the implementation of a new round of agricultural machinery subsidy policies, especially the increase in subsidy amounts for tracked tractors, it is expected that the tracked tractor market will experience the largest growth in recent years by 2025.

This growth is not only due to the leverage effect of subsidy policies, but also to the marketing efforts and technological innovation of large enterprises such as Weichai Lovol, Yituo Dongfanghong, Sardinia Heavy Industry, and Huaxia. The joining of these large enterprises will help promote technological progress and market expansion in the entire industry, rather than simply dividing the market. Therefore, the tracked tractor market in 2025 is worth looking forward to.

4、What new features will emerge in the competitive landscape?

The tractor industry will not be peaceful in 2025. New temptations and opportunities will emerge, which must bring about new changes and adjustments to the industry's competitive landscape.

Firstly, the number of tractor companies may continue to increase, but new entrants will not only focus on power shift and CVT tractors, but also be strong competitors. It is believed that few companies that do not have the ability to win automatic transmission products would dare to enter at this time.

Secondly, large enterprises tend to reshuffle in a high-profile manner. The reason for the coexistence of the "Matthew effect" and "long tail effect" in the domestic tractor industry is due to the emergence of "technological equality" in the era of mechanical transmission, while in the era of power shifting and CVT, there is truly a technological threshold.

Among more than 200 tractor companies, no more than 15 have truly mastered the full power shifting technology and can manufacture it. However, few, no more than 10, have successfully applied this technology to tractors and pushed it to the market. In the era of high technology, technology will help companies reshuffle, and technological reshuffle is the most thorough reshuffle.

The third is the first direct confrontation between domestic brands and multinational corporations. Power shift and CVT have always been exclusive markets for European and American brands such as John Deere, Case New Holland, Massey Ferguson, and Klaas. For a long time, domestic brands have been unable to enter the market. However, by 2025, domestic brands such as Weichai Lovol and Yituo Dongfanghong will definitely achieve mass production and sales, and some second - and third tier brands will quickly follow suit. Domestic brands are about to break through the core market barriers of multinational companies, and direct competition between the two sides is inevitable. It is expected that the prices of imported brands' power shift and CVT will plummet by 20254, which is good news for domestic users, just like electric vehicles forcing BBA to continue to lower prices.

In summary, looking ahead to the tractor market in 2025, although the overall industry is not expected to usher in a grand and turbulent market, avoiding drastic ups and downs, there are vitality hidden in the details, and signs of a small rebound will inject a bright light into the industry. The active adjustment of subsidy policies and their more friendly orientation undoubtedly have built a solid foundation for the domestic tractor market, ensuring that the industry can move forward steadily.

Under the wave of technological innovation, significant changes at the product level will be a major highlight of the market. The mass launch of automatic transmission tractors not only indicates a significant improvement in operational convenience, but also marks the deep penetration of intelligent and automated trends in the field of agricultural equipment. At the same time, the market share of heavy-duty tractors continues to grow, reflecting the increasing demand for efficient and high-power machinery in agricultural modernization. As an emerging hotspot, track tractors' ability to adapt to complex terrain and improve operational efficiency will bring revolutionary changes to agricultural production in specific fields.

In terms of competitive landscape, the tractor market in 2025 will be a more complex and ever-changing picture. With the increasing number of new entrants, market competition will become more intense, especially the direct confrontation between multinational corporations and domestic brands, which will become the focus of the industry for the first time. This not only tests the technological innovation ability and market response speed of various enterprises, but also a comprehensive competition about brand influence, service network construction, and international strategic deployment.

In short, although the tractor market in 2025 is not experiencing significant fluctuations, it is nurturing new development opportunities through mild policy support, technological iteration and upgrading, and reshaping of the competitive landscape. This is a quiet and profound transformation, with each step steadfastly pushing China's agricultural mechanization towards a higher level.

Author: Agricultural Machinery Spray

Source: Agricultural Machinery News Network